Ivan Shchadranok
May 2023
what’s preventing the Belarusian regions from taking off and what reforms can we start with?
Most Belarusians live outside Minsk, and many of them have the same complaints: a lack of prospects and jobs, a huge quality-of-life discrepancy between the capital and the regions, and steady population decline in small towns and agricultural areas. But can anything be changed? What reforms can tackle these problems?
Ivan Shchadranok
Ivan Shchadranok is an Associate Research Fellow at the Center for New Ideas. He serves as the Chairman of the Board for the Agency for Support of Sustainable Cities and Communities, "Interakcia," based in Georgia. Furthermore, Ivan is the coordinator in the Secretariat of the Covenant of Mayors on Climate and Energy in the Eastern Partnership countries. He earned his degree from the Law Faculty of the European Humanitarian University.
The geographical distribution of Belarus’s population continues to change. The regions and small cities are losing population to regional capitals and the Minsk agglomeration; meanwhile, 75% of urban dwellers (59% of the population as a whole) are concentrated in 20 of the 115 urban settlements in Belarus, and more than half of these are gradually hemorrhaging population too. Minsk and the Minsk Region produce more than half of the total GDP of Belarus. Though wages in Minsk are similar to those in the least developed regions of neighboring countries, earnings in and around the capital are still almost twice as high as in some other regions of Belarus.
The geographical distribution of Belarus’s population continues to change. The regions and small cities are losing population to regional capitals and the Minsk agglomeration; meanwhile, 75% of urban dwellers (59% of the population as a whole) are concentrated in 20 of the 115 urban settlements in Belarus, and more than half of these are gradually hemorrhaging population too. Minsk and the Minsk Region produce more than half of the total GDP of Belarus. Though wages in Minsk are similar to those in the least developed regions of neighboring countries, earnings in and around the capital are still almost twice as high as in some other regions of Belarus.
The geographical distribution of Belarus’s population continues to change. The regions and small cities are losing population to regional capitals and the Minsk agglomeration; meanwhile, 75% of urban dwellers (59% of the population as a whole) are concentrated in 20 of the 115 urban settlements in Belarus, and more than half of these are gradually hemorrhaging population too. Minsk and the Minsk Region produce more than half of the total GDP of Belarus. Though wages in Minsk are similar to those in the least developed regions of neighboring countries, earnings in and around the capital are still almost twice as high as in some other regions of Belarus.
According to a rating of administrative units compiled by the Economic Research Institute of the Belarusian Ministry of the Economy, only 7 of Belarus’s 128 subnational territorial entities had an above-average level of development in 2021 compared to the rest of the country. This figure is staggering: to frame it in a different way, 94% of administrative units are developing at a below-average level for the country. The Ranking of Belarusian Cities compiled by the Center for New Ideas reveals a similar picture. Only 8 out of 40 cities received above-average results.

So what is ailing the Belarusian regions? Why, despite tremendous efforts, generous resources, government programs, and strict management, are the regions failing to develop as they should? The answer is simple: our regions lag far behind those of nearby countries when it comes to reforming public administration and regional development.

Belarus’s regional development policy is still based on directive planning and redistribution of resources from the most to the least successful. The central node of this policy is the government, which distributes subsidies and investments to administrative units and certain sectors of the economy, attempting to maintain a uniform level of development and social services.

Perhaps such a policy made sense in the 1990s, but it has gradually become less effective. Most countries in the post-Soviet camp reached this conclusion in the early 2000s, leading them to implement comprehensive reforms. Their essence was simple: decentralize and improve the quality of local governance; develop the regions, with special consideration for their individual characteristics and potential for economic growth; invest in infrastructure; and create an ecosystem of services for business projects and local communities geared towards development.

Belarus continues to postpone such reforms, exacerbating existing problems and further jeopardizing its regions’ potential. Rapid development of neighboring countries, growing competition for human resources, and global-level investment all threaten to bury the prospects of many Belarusian towns and regions. For this reason, it is crucial to quickly implement reforms, prioritizing those that can best leverage local resources and protect the regions from further decay.

Reforms should focus on the following problems:

  • The lack of a unified, long-term vision and antiquated approaches to regional development. Current policy prioritizes maintaining the existing quality of life over development. Priorities are not clearly defined, and they are aimed mostly at either large cities or primarily agricultural regions.

  • Weak local government and limited participation of civil society in decision-making and policy implementation at the local level. This creates extremely unfavorable conditions for leveraging local potential in development processes.

  • The uncompetitiveness and lack of investment appeal of most regions, compounded with inadequate transportation connections. This has led to a concentration of investment and human capital in the Minsk agglomeration.

  • Outdated territorial boundaries. Divisions have not changed significantly since the urbanization and industrialization period of the second half of the 20th century. Several attempts to reform Belarus’s administrative boundaries have been unsuccessful due to a lack of political will.
According to a rating of administrative units compiled by the Economic Research Institute of the Belarusian Ministry of the Economy, only 7 of Belarus’s 128 subnational territorial entities had an above-average level of development in 2021 compared to the rest of the country. This figure is staggering: to frame it in a different way, 94% of administrative units are developing at a below-average level for the country. The Ranking of Belarusian Cities compiled by the Center for New Ideas reveals a similar picture. Only 8 out of 40 cities received above-average results.

So what is ailing the Belarusian regions? Why, despite tremendous efforts, generous resources, government programs, and strict management, are the regions failing to develop as they should? The answer is simple: our regions lag far behind those of nearby countries when it comes to reforming public administration and regional development.

Belarus’s regional development policy is still based on directive planning and redistribution of resources from the most to the least successful. The central node of this policy is the government, which distributes subsidies and investments to administrative units and certain sectors of the economy, attempting to maintain a uniform level of development and social services.

Perhaps such a policy made sense in the 1990s, but it has gradually become less effective. Most countries in the post-Soviet camp reached this conclusion in the early 2000s, leading them to implement comprehensive reforms. Their essence was simple: decentralize and improve the quality of local governance; develop the regions, with special consideration for their individual characteristics and potential for economic growth; invest in infrastructure; and create an ecosystem of services for business projects and local communities geared towards development.

Belarus continues to postpone such reforms, exacerbating existing problems and further jeopardizing its regions’ potential. Rapid development of neighboring countries, growing competition for human resources, and global-level investment all threaten to bury the prospects of many Belarusian towns and regions. For this reason, it is crucial to quickly implement reforms, prioritizing those that can best leverage local resources and protect the regions from further decay.

Reforms should focus on the following problems:

  • The lack of a unified, long-term vision and antiquated approaches to regional development. Current policy prioritizes maintaining the existing quality of life over development. Priorities are not clearly defined, and they are aimed mostly at either large cities or primarily agricultural regions.

  • Weak local government and limited participation of civil society in decision-making and policy implementation at the local level. This creates extremely unfavorable conditions for leveraging local potential in development processes.

  • The uncompetitiveness and lack of investment appeal of most regions, compounded with inadequate transportation connections. This has led to a concentration of investment and human capital in the Minsk agglomeration.

  • Outdated territorial boundaries. Divisions have not changed significantly since the urbanization and industrialization period of the second half of the 20th century. Several attempts to reform Belarus’s administrative boundaries have been unsuccessful due to a lack of political will.
According to a rating of administrative units compiled by the Economic Research Institute of the Belarusian Ministry of the Economy, only 7 of Belarus’s 128 subnational territorial entities had an above-average level of development in 2021 compared to the rest of the country. This figure is staggering: to frame it in a different way, 94% of administrative units are developing at a below-average level for the country. The Ranking of Belarusian Cities compiled by the Center for New Ideas reveals a similar picture. Only 8 out of 40 cities received above-average results.

So what is ailing the Belarusian regions? Why, despite tremendous efforts, generous resources, government programs, and strict management, are the regions failing to develop as they should? The answer is simple: our regions lag far behind those of nearby countries when it comes to reforming public administration and regional development.

Belarus’s regional development policy is still based on directive planning and redistribution of resources from the most to the least successful. The central node of this policy is the government, which distributes subsidies and investments to administrative units and certain sectors of the economy, attempting to maintain a uniform level of development and social services.

Perhaps such a policy made sense in the 1990s, but it has gradually become less effective. Most countries in the post-Soviet camp reached this conclusion in the early 2000s, leading them to implement comprehensive reforms. Their essence was simple: decentralize and improve the quality of local governance; develop the regions, with special consideration for their individual characteristics and potential for economic growth; invest in infrastructure; and create an ecosystem of services for business projects and local communities geared towards development.

Belarus continues to postpone such reforms, exacerbating existing problems and further jeopardizing its regions’ potential. Rapid development of neighboring countries, growing competition for human resources, and global-level investment all threaten to bury the prospects of many Belarusian towns and regions. For this reason, it is crucial to quickly implement reforms, prioritizing those that can best leverage local resources and protect the regions from further decay.

Reforms should focus on the following problems:

  • The lack of a unified, long-term vision and antiquated approaches to regional development. Current policy prioritizes maintaining the existing quality of life over development. Priorities are not clearly defined, and they are aimed mostly at either large cities or primarily agricultural regions.

  • Weak local government and limited participation of civil society in decision-making and policy implementation at the local level. This creates extremely unfavorable conditions for leveraging local potential in development processes.

  • The uncompetitiveness and lack of investment appeal of most regions, compounded with inadequate transportation connections. This has led to a concentration of investment and human capital in the Minsk agglomeration.

  • Outdated territorial boundaries. Divisions have not changed significantly since the urbanization and industrialization period of the second half of the 20th century. Several attempts to reform Belarus’s administrative boundaries have been unsuccessful due to a lack of political will.
How can we solve this problem and where can we start?
How can we solve this problem and where can we start?
How can we solve this problem and where can we start?
Create highly competent institutions responsible for regional development
The new policy of regional development and reform should be implemented by a government body and a network of regional agencies in charge of development. These should accumulate human and material resources and support local government bodies throughout the transformation process.

Local government should be at the heart of the regional development system. Reforming regional governance will require specialists within local government bodies who have expertise in areas such as strategic planning, effective resources use, e-government, project management, support and services for investors, recruitment, and modernization of institutions. To achieve this, we need a comprehensive program for fostering the potential of local government.
Create highly competent institutions responsible for regional development
The new policy of regional development and reform should be implemented by a government body and a network of regional agencies in charge of development. These should accumulate human and material resources and support local government bodies throughout the transformation process.

Local government should be at the heart of the regional development system. Reforming regional governance will require specialists within local government bodies who have expertise in areas such as strategic planning, effective resources use, e-government, project management, support and services for investors, recruitment, and modernization of institutions. To achieve this, we need a comprehensive program for fostering the potential of local government.
Create highly competent institutions responsible for regional development
The new policy of regional development and reform should be implemented by a government body and a network of regional agencies in charge of development. These should accumulate human and material resources and support local government bodies throughout the transformation process.

Local government should be at the heart of the regional development system. Reforming regional governance will require specialists within local government bodies who have expertise in areas such as strategic planning, effective resources use, e-government, project management, support and services for investors, recruitment, and modernization of institutions. To achieve this, we need a comprehensive program for fostering the potential of local government.
Increase civil participation in governance processes
Local councils’ lack of power has led to disinterest among local residents in their activities. In 2021, the NAN Institute of Sociology in Belarus conducted a survey of the regions affected by the Chernobyl disaster. About 29% of survey respondents claimed that there was no real way to influence decision-making at the local level. About half of surveyed citizens indicated that their participation in the activities of local government would facilitate more effective problem solving in their communities.

For local communities to take on new roles and to achieve administrative reform, a much higher level of civic interest and participation in decision-making processes is needed. Belarusians need local institutions that support civil society, competitiveness, and transparent elections. Such institutions should hold local government bodies accountable and facilitate civic participation in determining and implementing local development strategies.
Increase civil participation in governance processes
Local councils’ lack of power has led to disinterest among local residents in their activities. In 2021, the NAN Institute of Sociology in Belarus conducted a survey of the regions affected by the Chernobyl disaster. About 29% of survey respondents claimed that there was no real way to influence decision-making at the local level. About half of surveyed citizens indicated that their participation in the activities of local government would facilitate more effective problem solving in their communities.

For local communities to take on new roles and to achieve administrative reform, a much higher level of civic interest and participation in decision-making processes is needed. Belarusians need local institutions that support civil society, competitiveness, and transparent elections. Such institutions should hold local government bodies accountable and facilitate civic participation in determining and implementing local development strategies.
Increase civil participation in governance processes
Local councils’ lack of power has led to disinterest among local residents in their activities. In 2021, the NAN Institute of Sociology in Belarus conducted a survey of the regions affected by the Chernobyl disaster. About 29% of survey respondents claimed that there was no real way to influence decision-making at the local level. About half of surveyed citizens indicated that their participation in the activities of local government would facilitate more effective problem solving in their communities.

For local communities to take on new roles and to achieve administrative reform, a much higher level of civic interest and participation in decision-making processes is needed. Belarusians need local institutions that support civil society, competitiveness, and transparent elections. Such institutions should hold local government bodies accountable and facilitate civic participation in determining and implementing local development strategies.
Reform administrative divisions
The current national and regional-level system of territorial organization comprises 18 sub-regions within existing regions, each with their own particular geographies, population, available networks, social infrastructure, economic appeal, access to social and medical services, and transportation infrastructure.

Several studies and projects for reforming Belarus’s administrative units have proposed a number of reasonable, actionable decisions. Almost all of them boil down to doing away with the current three-level system of six regions, 128 district/city councils and 1,154 rural councils. Instead, they propose introducing a two-level system consisting of 15-20 subregions or districts and more than 200 units of local government.

Furthermore, reforms should devolve more power to local government—this is crucial for devising comprehensive strategies for regional and community development. These strategies should be based on fresh, geographically rooted visions and priorities, smart specialization, and a focus on cities and regions with the highest growth potential.

Fiscal and budget reforms are essential: this will increase the share of taxes collected at the local level that remain in the local budget. It is also important to strengthen the property rights of local governments regarding resource ownership.
Reform administrative divisions
The current national and regional-level system of territorial organization comprises 18 sub-regions within existing regions, each with their own particular geographies, population, available networks, social infrastructure, economic appeal, access to social and medical services, and transportation infrastructure.

Several studies and projects for reforming Belarus’s administrative units have proposed a number of reasonable, actionable decisions. Almost all of them boil down to doing away with the current three-level system of six regions, 128 district/city councils and 1,154 rural councils. Instead, they propose introducing a two-level system consisting of 15-20 subregions or districts and more than 200 units of local government.

Furthermore, reforms should devolve more power to local government—this is crucial for devising comprehensive strategies for regional and community development. These strategies should be based on fresh, geographically rooted visions and priorities, smart specialization, and a focus on cities and regions with the highest growth potential.

Fiscal and budget reforms are essential: this will increase the share of taxes collected at the local level that remain in the local budget. It is also important to strengthen the property rights of local governments regarding resource ownership.
Reform administrative divisions
The current national and regional-level system of territorial organization comprises 18 sub-regions within existing regions, each with their own particular geographies, population, available networks, social infrastructure, economic appeal, access to social and medical services, and transportation infrastructure.

Several studies and projects for reforming Belarus’s administrative units have proposed a number of reasonable, actionable decisions. Almost all of them boil down to doing away with the current three-level system of six regions, 128 district/city councils and 1,154 rural councils. Instead, they propose introducing a two-level system consisting of 15-20 subregions or districts and more than 200 units of local government.

Furthermore, reforms should devolve more power to local government—this is crucial for devising comprehensive strategies for regional and community development. These strategies should be based on fresh, geographically rooted visions and priorities, smart specialization, and a focus on cities and regions with the highest growth potential.

Fiscal and budget reforms are essential: this will increase the share of taxes collected at the local level that remain in the local budget. It is also important to strengthen the property rights of local governments regarding resource ownership.
Improve the infrastructure and digital accessibility of the regions
Implementing a regional development strategy will require massive modernization of existing networks, including roads, railroads, and e-government infrastructure. One way to achieve this goal could be to encourage cooperation between the regions and international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, and the European Investment Bank, which have already financed a number of similar projects in Belarus.

Improving access will also require policy makers to pay more attention to mobility within and amongst the regions. Belarus needs more regional transport operators, and all means of transportation should be integrated into a single network of routes in order to increase the appeal of public transportation for commuters.

Finally, IT solutions and e-government could improve the capabilities of local government to provide services to local residents and businesses. This will increase the appeal of the regions to investors and improve quality of life.
Improve the infrastructure and digital accessibility of the regions
Implementing a regional development strategy will require massive modernization of existing networks, including roads, railroads, and e-government infrastructure. One way to achieve this goal could be to encourage cooperation between the regions and international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, and the European Investment Bank, which have already financed a number of similar projects in Belarus.

Improving access will also require policy makers to pay more attention to mobility within and amongst the regions. Belarus needs more regional transport operators, and all means of transportation should be integrated into a single network of routes in order to increase the appeal of public transportation for commuters.

Finally, IT solutions and e-government could improve the capabilities of local government to provide services to local residents and businesses. This will increase the appeal of the regions to investors and improve quality of life.
Improve the infrastructure and digital accessibility of the regions
Implementing a regional development strategy will require massive modernization of existing networks, including roads, railroads, and e-government infrastructure. One way to achieve this goal could be to encourage cooperation between the regions and international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, and the European Investment Bank, which have already financed a number of similar projects in Belarus.

Improving access will also require policy makers to pay more attention to mobility within and amongst the regions. Belarus needs more regional transport operators, and all means of transportation should be integrated into a single network of routes in order to increase the appeal of public transportation for commuters.

Finally, IT solutions and e-government could improve the capabilities of local government to provide services to local residents and businesses. This will increase the appeal of the regions to investors and improve quality of life.
Retain human capital, increase workforce mobility
Retaining human capital will mean improving educational infrastructure at the local level. Regional universities need modernization based on the needs of the labor market. The public’s foreign language skills and cultural literacy must also be improved. Likewise, Belarus needs better infrastructure for professional and informal education, which should be located close to people’s homes.

The regions need to mitigate outward migration through projects to increase workforce mobility, improve the quality of professional education, and create user-friendly job search tools. Rather than costly job-retention schemes at state enterprises, regions’ strategies should focus on transitioning to more productive employment in the private sector and developing a business ecosystem for entrepreneurs and the self-employed.
Retain human capital, increase workforce mobility
Retaining human capital will mean improving educational infrastructure at the local level. Regional universities need modernization based on the needs of the labor market. The public’s foreign language skills and cultural literacy must also be improved. Likewise, Belarus needs better infrastructure for professional and informal education, which should be located close to people’s homes.

The regions need to mitigate outward migration through projects to increase workforce mobility, improve the quality of professional education, and create user-friendly job search tools. Rather than costly job-retention schemes at state enterprises, regions’ strategies should focus on transitioning to more productive employment in the private sector and developing a business ecosystem for entrepreneurs and the self-employed.
Retain human capital, increase workforce mobility
Retaining human capital will mean improving educational infrastructure at the local level. Regional universities need modernization based on the needs of the labor market. The public’s foreign language skills and cultural literacy must also be improved. Likewise, Belarus needs better infrastructure for professional and informal education, which should be located close to people’s homes.

The regions need to mitigate outward migration through projects to increase workforce mobility, improve the quality of professional education, and create user-friendly job search tools. Rather than costly job-retention schemes at state enterprises, regions’ strategies should focus on transitioning to more productive employment in the private sector and developing a business ecosystem for entrepreneurs and the self-employed.
Implement principles of sustainable development and green transition
To ensure a high-quality living environment and attract human capital, the Belarusian regions need to become more resource-efficient and resilient to climate change. They also need to protect biodiversity, raise ecological awareness, and use green technologies and approaches in the modernization process. Green transition principles must be present at all levels of regional policy, strategy development, and project development. Likewise, reforms need to uphold social justice, guaranteeing that social services and protection are accessible for the most vulnerable population groups.
Implement principles of sustainable development and green transition
To ensure a high-quality living environment and attract human capital, the Belarusian regions need to become more resource-efficient and resilient to climate change. They also need to protect biodiversity, raise ecological awareness, and use green technologies and approaches in the modernization process. Green transition principles must be present at all levels of regional policy, strategy development, and project development. Likewise, reforms need to uphold social justice, guaranteeing that social services and protection are accessible for the most vulnerable population groups.
Implement principles of sustainable development and green transition
To ensure a high-quality living environment and attract human capital, the Belarusian regions need to become more resource-efficient and resilient to climate change. They also need to protect biodiversity, raise ecological awareness, and use green technologies and approaches in the modernization process. Green transition principles must be present at all levels of regional policy, strategy development, and project development. Likewise, reforms need to uphold social justice, guaranteeing that social services and protection are accessible for the most vulnerable population groups.
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