Reforms? Are you crazy?

As we write our “Rough Draft for Reforming Belarus,” repression in the country is rife and there is a war at our doorstep. It might seem more reasonable to simply give up: Belarusians have run out of steam, and it’s getting increasingly difficult to believe a better tomorrow is possible. So why even think about reforms?

Introduction to our “Rough Draft for Reforming Belarus”

First and foremost, this project is a response to demand in society.

Most Belarusians want reforms, and many are asking themselves what their country might look like after Lukashenka. People want to know what the democratic forces want other than Lukashenka’s departure; some might even believe that the opposition hasn’t developed a program for transforming the country at all, and that there aren’t enough qualified people who can really make a difference. This “Rough Draft for Reforming Belarus” shows that this isn’t the case: there are ideas and there are people. Belarus can become a better country.

In your opinion, are reforms needed or not needed in Belarus?

Source: Chatham House CAWI survey of Belarusian urban dwellers, January-February 2023.

The second reason to think about reforms: if not now, when?

We need to have a clear idea of what sort of Belarus we want now, before a new window of opportunity opens, as we’re unlikely to have the luxury of methodologically drawing up a reform agenda amidst another political crisis. Furthermore, it’s completely possible that the next head of state will be someone completely accidental. And even if they’re not, they still won’t have an answer for everything. Therefore, the more qualitative and quantitative material society can produce and pass on to this random or not-so-random person, the better the eventual results.

The third reason to think about reforms now: they are inevitable anyway.

Lukashenka’s system as a model for development has exhausted itself. The size of Belarus’s economy in 2023 is the same as it was a decade ago, rule of law has imploded, and foreign policy—like the entire country—is ultra-dependent on Russia. Belarus may remain frozen in this state for years to come, but any type of exit from the status quo will involve transformation.

***

The Center for New Ideas, together with Zerkalo, launched the cycle “Rough Draft for Reforming Belarus” in December of 2022 in order to explain what challenges Belarus faces and what can be done about them. As of the end of May, we have published 10 pieces on our site in three languages: Belarusian, Russian, and English.

As the word “draft” implies, this project does not presume to be scripture. As Ihnat Abdziralovič wrote 100 years ago, “Silly boy, do you really think there are clear paths to follow in life?” As such, our task is merely to propose ideas for Belarus and foster discussion about what kinds of changes are needed in the future.

For this cycle, the authors did not consult with each other on individual pieces’ content. Each piece is about 1,000–1,200 words; the first half of the text is usually dedicated to outlining a challenge Belarus needs to overcome, while the second addresses what can be done about it.

***

Our “Rough Draft” demystifies the concept of reform. As Belarusian economist Pavel Daneyko often says, today’s Belarus shouldn’t be understood by looking back at the transformations that took place in Eastern Europe in the ‘90s. Belarus is far less socialist, and Belarusians are far less paternalistic.

Would you consider yourself …?

Source: Chatham House CAWI survey of Belarusian urban dwellers, March 2023.

Belarusians have already done a lot of reforming. Half the economy is now private, citizens have accumulated considerable expertise, and a multitude of solutions for the healthcare and education systems have been tried and tested in private clinics and schools. In any case, what needs to be done in many sectors is pretty clear. We’re just not allowed to do it.

The plan to transform Belarus is hardly radical: it merely entails leaving behind the abnormal country we live in now. The most pressing changes, of course, will be in the political sphere, where we will basically need to re-learn how to walk. But is that really so scary?

Quick summaries of our 10 texts

1. In order to give Belarusian democracy a fighting chance following regime change, we need a system with both a strong president and prime minister. The political system needs at least two centers of power with enough authority to prevent the other from becoming too strong.

2. To relaunch the economy after Lukashenka, institutional reforms are necessary. Primarily, these changes are associated with limiting the role of the state in the economy, creating a friendly environment for economic activity, improving the efficiency of managing state enterprises, and of the social protection system.

3. To address the problems facing the Belarusian regions, it is necessary to establish high-quality institutions focused on regional development, increase citizen participation in decision-making processes, carry out administrative and territorial reforms, improve infrastructure and digital accessibility, as well as enhance the mobility of human capital.

4. The counteract negative demographic trends in Belarus, we need more flexible parental support to ensure higher birth-rates—this is especially important for career women. We also need to bring in migrants and stem the flow of emigration, as more than 150,000 Belarusians have left their country in the last three years.

5. In the healthcare sector, the most important challenge is to overcome the mutual antagonism between health workers, patients, and administrators, so that all groups can work jointly towards solutions. Technology can provide many answers.

6. To reform education, we will need to engage all interested parties in honest dialogue, increase teachers’ professional training and salaries, grant more independence to educational institutions, guarantee equitable educational opportunities for various social groups, and provide students with the skills they need to thrive in a modern society and economy.

7. To increase the number of women in Belarusian politics, we need temporary gender quotas for political positions. We also need to change the public’s opinion on the role of women and empower them to study political science, diplomacy, and public administration.

8. An anti-discrimination strategy is needed, which will include educational measures, comprehensive anti-discrimination legislation with the introduction of a separate special law, the establishment of a dedicated body for addressing discrimination cases, and a monitoring system.

9. Digitization in Belarus should begin with the establishment of a core group of specialists who will later become Chief Technology Officers in dozens of government agencies, and the formation of a community of the most active users of digital tools.

10. In foreign policy, we may need to create a new image of an “open Belarus”—a country with global economic appeal that plays a positive role in regional security.

Quick summaries of our 10 texts

1. In order to give Belarusian democracy a fighting chance following regime change, we need a system with both a strong president and prime minister. The political system needs at least two centers of power with enough authority to prevent the other from becoming too strong.

2. To relaunch the economy after Lukashenka, institutional reforms are necessary. Primarily, these changes are associated with limiting the role of the state in the economy, creating a friendly environment for economic activity, improving the efficiency of managing state enterprises, and of the social protection system.

3. To address the problems facing the Belarusian regions, it is necessary to establish high-quality institutions focused on regional development, increase citizen participation in decision-making processes, carry out administrative and territorial reforms, improve infrastructure and digital accessibility, as well as enhance the mobility of human capital.

4. The counteract negative demographic trends in Belarus, we need more flexible parental support to ensure higher birth-rates—this is especially important for career women. We also need to bring in migrants and stem the flow of emigration, as more than 150,000 Belarusians have left their country in the last three years.

5. In the healthcare sector, the most important challenge is to overcome the mutual antagonism between health workers, patients, and administrators, so that all groups can work jointly towards solutions. Technology can provide many answers.

6. To reform education, we will need to engage all interested parties in honest dialogue, increase teachers’ professional training and salaries, grant more independence to educational institutions, guarantee equitable educational opportunities for various social groups, and provide students with the skills they need to thrive in a modern society and economy.

7. To increase the number of women in Belarusian politics, we need temporary gender quotas for political positions. We also need to change the public’s opinion on the role of women and empower them to study political science, diplomacy, and public administration.

8. An anti-discrimination strategy is needed, which will include educational measures, comprehensive anti-discrimination legislation with the introduction of a separate special law, the establishment of a dedicated body for addressing discrimination cases, and a monitoring system.

9. Digitization in Belarus should begin with the establishment of a core group of specialists who will later become Chief Technology Officers in dozens of government agencies, and the formation of a community of the most active users of digital tools.

10. In foreign policy, we may need to create a new image of an “open Belarus”—a country with global economic appeal that plays a positive role in regional security.

Quick summaries of our 10 texts

1. In order to give Belarusian democracy a fighting chance following regime change, we need a system with both a strong president and prime minister. The political system needs at least two centers of power with enough authority to prevent the other from becoming too strong.

2. To relaunch the economy after Lukashenka, institutional reforms are necessary. Primarily, these changes are associated with limiting the role of the state in the economy, creating a friendly environment for economic activity, improving the efficiency of managing state enterprises, and of the social protection system.

3. To address the problems facing the Belarusian regions, it is necessary to establish high-quality institutions focused on regional development, increase citizen participation in decision-making processes, carry out administrative and territorial reforms, improve infrastructure and digital accessibility, as well as enhance the mobility of human capital.

4. The counteract negative demographic trends in Belarus, we need more flexible parental support to ensure higher birth-rates—this is especially important for career women. We also need to bring in migrants and stem the flow of emigration, as more than 150,000 Belarusians have left their country in the last three years.

5. In the healthcare sector, the most important challenge is to overcome the mutual antagonism between health workers, patients, and administrators, so that all groups can work jointly towards solutions. Technology can provide many answers.

6. To reform education, we will need to engage all interested parties in honest dialogue, increase teachers’ professional training and salaries, grant more independence to educational institutions, guarantee equitable educational opportunities for various social groups, and provide students with the skills they need to thrive in a modern society and economy.

7. To increase the number of women in Belarusian politics, we need temporary gender quotas for political positions. We also need to change the public’s opinion on the role of women and empower them to study political science, diplomacy, and public administration.

8. An anti-discrimination strategy is needed, which will include educational measures, comprehensive anti-discrimination legislation with the introduction of a separate special law, the establishment of a dedicated body for addressing discrimination cases, and a monitoring system.

9. Digitization in Belarus should begin with the establishment of a core group of specialists who will later become Chief Technology Officers in dozens of government agencies, and the formation of a community of the most active users of digital tools.

10. In foreign policy, we may need to create a new image of an “open Belarus”—a country with global economic appeal that plays a positive role in regional security.

Homepage

top